The Vision Pro has been on the market for a while, and although it has not yet been launched in China, it is already available for purchase on multiple platforms. However, its price has dropped from its original exorbitant level to be roughly in line with the US market.

Initially thought to be a game-changer for the XR market, the subsequent market dive has led people to question whether the Vision Pro will become another failed product for Apple. Nevertheless, recent moves by Apple seem to indicate that the company has a new business plan for the Vision Pro. For a device costing 20,000, Apple does not intend for individual consumers to foot the bill.

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Apple's To B Strategy

In the early stages of the Vision Pro's launch, the lack of supporting applications was a constant point of contention. Even with excellent device performance, the use cases for individual consumers were too limited. Some users pointed out, "It's not that we can't afford the Vision Pro, but there's simply no cost-effectiveness." It is precisely the absence of a killer app that has turned the once premium-priced device into a situation where only a handful are sold per week. Reports indicate that trial appointments for the Vision Pro at Apple retail stores have seen a significant decline, with many users frequently canceling their appointments, and some stores' sales have plummeted from several units per day to just a few per week.

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Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo stated that Apple is reducing the shipment volume of the Vision Pro for 2024 and reconsidering the plans for the next model. According to him, Apple has now set this year's shipment target for the Vision Pro at 400,000 to 450,000 units. This is a decrease compared to the initial market expectation of 700,000 to 800,000 units.

Amid the rather negative market response, Apple seems to be looking to open up new markets through To B business. In fact, Apple's developers have been building applications for various enterprise categories of Apple Vision Pro, ranging from business productivity and product design to immersive training and instructional work.In February 2024, Microsoft 365 also launched an application for Vision Pro, allowing users to seamlessly utilize Microsoft Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Outlook, Loop, OneNote, and the iPad version of Teams on Vision Pro.

Specific features include: creating and editing documents, presentations, and spreadsheets; sharing, co-creating, and real-time collaboration; using Microsoft Copilot for creation, editing, and chatting; as well as participating in and hosting meetings or chatting with friends, family, and colleagues. Although the joy of "immersive" office work is not understood, the functionality of online meetings is exactly the vision of the metaverse concept that was popular a long time ago.

During the same period, SAP Analytics Cloud also announced its arrival in the Apple Vision Pro App Store.

In March 2024, NVIDIA announced its arrival in the Vision Pro App Store. NVIDIA will introduce the Omniverse enterprise digital twin for industrial scenarios based on Universal Scene Description (OpenUSD), allowing developers to transfer a large amount of 3D engineering and simulation datasets from the cloud to Vision Pro. NVIDIA's Vice President of Simulation, Rev Lebaredian, said: "Apple Vision Pro is the first unencumbered device that allows enterprise customers to achieve their work without compromise." "We look forward to our customers being able to use these amazing tools."

The above examples basically showcase the application of Vision Pro in the To B field. In contrast, the collaboration between Porsche and Vision Pro seems relatively "leisurely." In March 2024, Cook and Porsche CEO Oliver Blume "connected" to showcase the cockpit application provided by Vision Pro for the new Taycan electric vehicle. However, this application is obviously not for drivers to drive with, but allows users to view track lap times, related data statistics, and 3D track maps from a first-person perspective. From the displayed images, this program seems more like an immersive racing viewing program.

But what consumers are looking forward to is not being surrounded by office software. Once upon a time, Vision Pro was endowed with the XR device that could change the entertainment experience, and it was believed that Apple would finally launch the moment when XR would take off. However, to this day, there has been no killer software that can explode the sales of Vision Pro.

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When can you entertain?Despite the abundance of office software, users' greatest expectation for Vision Pro remains entertainment. One Vision Pro user pointed out that the primary scenario in which he uses Vision Pro is for entertainment. Some users have stated that Vision Pro is the best video-watching device they have ever used, and they experienced a strong sense of immersion when watching "Echo" on Disney+ and "Dickinson" on Apple TV+ through Vision Pro. The cinema mode of these two applications can already approach the experience of a real cinema. Even compared to a 65-inch TV screen, Vision Pro's performance is superior in terms of fidelity and immersion.

However, for productivity, users believe that although the performance of the virtual display is impressive, typing on Vision Pro is quite difficult. While Vision Pro's sensors can capture the user's eye movements, they are actually vague for typing. For users, it is still more convenient to use browsers and email on mobile phones and computers.

For the average consumer, the price of Vision Pro remains high, and even the relatively cheaper Quest 3 is not inexpensive, with a price of approximately 3,646 yuan.

People want innovation; they want the next-generation iPhone. The traditional view is that innovation lies in hardware—which is reasonable. However, those who are more nerdy than most would surely consider software to be arguably the most important aspect of any technology product.

The popularization of XR devices in the consumer market has always faced many challenges. Previously, to promote the concept of the metaverse, Facebook changed its name to Meta, but the effect was not significant. Recently, Meta made an important decision to adopt a united front strategy by opening its Meta Horizon OS to third-party manufacturers. This move is seen by outsiders as a key initiative that could reshape the landscape of the VR, AR, and metaverse markets. If a large developer ecosystem is successfully built, Meta is expected to become the leader of the VR and metaverse era, following Microsoft in the PC era and Google in the mobile development era, and to create the "Android" operating system in the VR field.

According to the official announcement, Meta Horizon OS is the result of Meta's ten-year effort to build the next-generation computing platform. Opening this system means that more people will benefit from it. After a decade of research and development, Horizon OS has integrated many of Meta's self-developed technologies, including inside-out tracking and self-tracking controllers. Inside-out tracking technology can accurately capture the user's hand and finger movements, achieving more natural operation and interaction. Self-tracking controllers allow the device to automatically track the user's hand or other body parts, providing users with a smarter and more flexible interface control.

To achieve a more natural interaction system, Meta has also developed hand, eye, facial, and body tracking technologies. In the field of mixed reality technology, Meta has developed a complete set of technologies that integrate the digital and physical worlds, including high-resolution penetration, scene understanding, and spatial anchors. With the opening of Horizon OS, several technology companies have adopted this operating system. According to Meta's official announcement, ASUS's Republic of Gamers will use Horizon OS to develop high-performance head-worn device games. Lenovo, with its rich experience in Oculus Rift S and the ThinkPad laptop series, is developing mixed reality devices for productivity, learning, and entertainment.

Last year, Xbox collaborated with Meta to introduce Xbox Cloud Gaming (beta) to Meta Quest, providing users with a new experience of playing Xbox games on a large 2D virtual screen in mixed reality. Now, the two companies have joined hands again to create a limited edition Meta Quest inspired by Xbox. This move is expected to further promote the popularization and development of XR devices in the consumer market.Consumer Market: Big Factories Fall, Small Factories Thrive

While large companies have yet to conquer the vast universe, some more consumer-friendly products have already made a small but significant impact in the consumer market.

Thanks to companies like Xreal and Rokid introducing more affordable AR glasses, the AR market is also expected to grow in 2024. These glasses often serve as alternatives to display devices, enhancing productivity or improving the media consumption experience.

On April 22, Rokid officially launched its new product—the AR Lite Spatial Computing Suite. The suite includes a lightweight display terminal, the Rokid Max2 glasses, weighing only 75 grams, and a Rokid Station 2 host integrated with sensing, computing, and battery modules, which can be held and operated with one hand.

According to the live demonstration, Rokid AR Lite has a variety of features, such as mobile light office, immersive big-screen gaming, movie-watching experience, and quick screen casting from computers and smartphones. In terms of interaction, Rokid AR Lite has undergone innovative upgrades, eliminating the original physical buttons on the front and adding multi-finger multi-gesture touch functions, allowing users to seamlessly transition from the interaction modes on smartphones and tablets. Rokid has not disclosed the specific pricing information for AR Lite. Based on widespread speculation in the industry, its price may be under 3000 yuan. This price range gives Rokid AR Lite a certain level of competitiveness in the market.

The affordability of these XR devices is mainly attributed to the different technologies they employ compared to Apple. The see-through functionality of XR devices is primarily based on two technological paths. One is VST (Video See Through), which captures images of the real world through cameras and other sensors and projects them onto the screen, providing a more immersive experience for users. For example, VR devices like Apple's Vision Pro and Meta's Quest use this technology. The other is OST (Optical See Through), which interacts with the real world through camera positioning and chip calculations, with the real world as the main focus, commonly found in AR devices. This is also the technological path chosen by domestic AR glass manufacturers like Rokid, Xreal, Lei Niu Innovation, and INMO.

VST and OST each have their advantages and disadvantages. Since VST requires the construction of an immersive and digital physical world, this makes it difficult for the device to be lightweight, which is one of the reasons why products like Vision Pro and Quest are expensive. In contrast, OST does not need to reconstruct the physical world, so it has the advantages of being lightweight and comfortable, but it is difficult to achieve deep immersion. Apple chose VST because this technology can fully leverage its advantages in chips, operating systems, supply chain integration, and product pricing power. Obviously, for the consumer market, OST is undoubtedly the more suitable choice at present.

The popularization of consumer electronics is inseparable from two major scenarios: gaming and social interaction, and achieving fragmentation in social scenarios is crucial. When AR glasses can have convenient fragmented functions, they are expected to achieve explosive growth in multiple scenarios in the short term. However, the premise of this process is that key materials such as optics, batteries, computing power, and communication must undergo technological transformation. This process may take 3 to 5 years to complete. Of course, low prices do not mean that they cannot enter the B2B field. Many AR manufacturers regard the enterprise end as an important testing ground for technology and the market.

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The iPhone Moment for the XR IndustryThe development phase of the XR industry is similar to that of the smartphone industry in 2007, with numerous companies exploring the direction of the next generation of products, and the industry is in need of a product with epoch-making significance. Apple's Vision Pro has the potential to be such a product.

Regardless of the outcome, at least this product has driven the entire industry forward. In an interview, Rokid's founder and CEO, Mingming Zhu, stated that after the release of Vision Pro, Rokid experienced a multi-fold increase in both sales and developers.

According to data published by CINNO Research, the total sales volume of consumer-grade AR devices in China in 2023 reached 227,000 units, marking a significant year-on-year growth. Although sales have risen, from an overall shipment perspective, AR glasses have not yet fully entered the mass market. However, Rokid predicts that the shipment volume of AR Lite in 2024 could reach between 300,000 and 500,000 units, a figure equivalent to the annual sales volume of a smart flagship phone. If this forecast is realized, it will undoubtedly signify a significant step in the popularization of AR glasses in the market. Compared to Vision Pro, AR glasses are more like a screen and have advantages in both price and ecosystem. Perhaps for Apple, cost-effectiveness has never been its pursuit, but the ecosystem issue should become its top priority.

The XR industry is gradually approaching a revolutionary moment similar to that of the smartphone industry. Vision Pro is facing a shift from mere device innovation to application innovation, thereby integrating into more scenarios.

Apple created the iPhone moment in the mobile phone industry; can it also create the iPhone moment in the XR industry?